Development of organizational and technical methods for predicting emergency situations and possible losses as their results

Keywords: formalized model, organizational and technical method, control algorithm, emergency, losses

Abstract

Emergency prevention is based on analysis, forecasting and early response to emergencies. A systematic approach to solving the problem of preventing emergencies envisages forecasting emergencies by type, level and possible losses caused as a their results both in the state as a whole and in its regions. To implement a systematic approach based on a formalized mathematical model, an organizational and technical method has been developed for predicting emergencies and possible losses caused as their results.

The method is a combination of a variable order polynomial regression method, a weighted least squares method, and a probabilistic statistical method. This allows to compensate for the shortcomings of some at the expense of others, which will lead to an increase in forecasting accuracy.

A control algorithm has been developed for the implementation of an organizational and technical method for predicting emergency situations and possible losses caused as their results. Its use involves the implementation of a number of interrelated procedures. At the first stage, the collection, processing and analysis of information on emergency situations in the country for a certain period of monitoring is carried out. This is the basis for predicting the processes of emergencies in general, in nature, level and types, as well as losses due to them both in the state and its regions. The information received is taken into account when forming a decision on the actions of civil protection units in order to adequately respond to emergency situations and eliminate their consequences. Based on the analysis of the effectiveness of the actions of the response units, the decisions on the elimination of emergency situations are adjusted.

The developed method makes it possible to reasonably approach the planning and implementation of organizational and technical measures to prevent emergency situations, taking into account the potential threats to the territories and population of the country's regions

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Author Biographies

Hryhorii Ivanets, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

Department of Fire Tactics and Rescue Operations

Stanislav Horielyshev, National Academy of the National Guard of Ukraine

Scientific and Research Center of Service and Military Activities of the National Guard of Ukraine

Martin Sagradian, Macquarie University

Department of Mathematics and Statistics

Mykhailo Ivanets, Ivan Kozhedub Kharkiv National Air Force University

Scientific and Research Center of the Air Force

Igor Boikov, National Academy of the National Guard of Ukraine

Department of Armoured Vehicles

Dmitro Baulin, National Academy of the National Guard of Ukraine

Scientific and Research Center of Service and Military Activities of the National Guard of Ukraine

Yurij Kozlov, Kharkiv National University of Radio Electronics

Department of Metrology and Technical Expertise

Aleksandr Nakonechnyi, Ivan Kozhedub Kharkiv National Air Force University

Department of Armament of Air Defense of Ground Forces

Lyudmila Safoshkina, National Academy of the National Guard of Ukraine

Scientific and Research Center of Service and Military Activities of the National Guard of Ukraine

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Published
2021-09-13
How to Cite
Ivanets, H., Horielyshev, S., Sagradian, M., Ivanets, M., Boikov, I., Baulin, D., Kozlov, Y., Nakonechnyi, A., & Safoshkina, L. (2021). Development of organizational and technical methods for predicting emergency situations and possible losses as their results. EUREKA: Physics and Engineering, (5), 121-132. https://doi.org/10.21303/2461-4262.2021.002007
Section
Mathematics

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